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Trends And Opportunities For Stand-Alone Solar In Sub-Saharan Africa, 2021 And Beyond

5/26/2021

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Solar has been hailed as one of the breakthrough solutions that will drive economic development in Africa. Experts have identified stand-alone solar as a cost-effective solution to the electrification challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where 548 million people still live without electricity [1]. In recognition of this, governments in countries like Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Zambia and Malawi have added solar home systems (SHS) to their national electrification plans. Some of these governments have gone ahead to roll out programmes like the Solar Naija that aims to reach 5 million people with SHS and promote local assembly for the same.

The largest addressable markets for SHS in SSA are found in Nigeria and Ethiopia where 77 million and 60 million people respectively, do not have access to electricity. Other significant markets are found in Tanzania – 35 million people and Uganda – 32 million people, who lack electricity [2]. The total unelectrified population for Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe stands at 51 million people.
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Despite these prospects, the stand-alone solar sector, like all other sectors, was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Sales for SHS in different SSA countries dropped by 28% – 49% between December 2019 and June 2020. In Senegal, the decrease was mainly on cash sales while pay-as-you-go (PAYG) remained stable. Due to measures put in place to contain the pandemic, economic activity in SSA was projected to decline by 3.3% in 2020. The World Bank estimates that 40 million people are likely to slide into extreme poverty in Africa [3]. This means the progress that had been made with energy access in the continent will be affected and the number of people who cannot afford SAS will increase. Consequently, governments, investors, and development partners need to collaborate to address the affordability constraints for consumers and avail relief funding for SAS companies [4],[5].

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