Utility bosses believe that the risk of electricity consumers going off-grid and using it only as occasional backup will increase significantly in the next two years.

That’s according to a new study from Accenture, in which 95 per cent of utilities agreed that the deployment of distributed generation technologies like rooftop solar is increasing faster than utilities can build new grid capacity to handle it in high-demand areas.

The proportion of both residential and commercial consumers with rooftop solar PV in the markets modelled in the report could exceed 15 per cent by 2036 in some parts of the world, such as California in the US.

And Accenture says that this trend is likely to continue to affect net electricity demand growth for the foreseeable future.

“Distribution businesses have had a tough time in recent years with weak demand, which is one reason why grid operators’ profits have been squeezed,” said Stephanie Jamison, a managing director at Accenture who leads its Transmission and Distribution business.

“The proliferation of distributed generation changes electricity demand profiles, potentially diminishing total demand without necessarily reducing peak demand. Successful distributed generation integration will require substantial investments in new connections and grid reinforcement to modernise the network and sustain the same level of reliability and safety and secure operations.”

The study surveyed 150 executives across 25 countries as part of Accenture’s Digitally Enabled Grid research programme.

It found that increased deployment of distributed generation will “complicate utilities’ operations, requiring distribution utilities to act now to avoid the excessive grid-reinforcement spending required to host new distributed generation energy flows”.

​According to Accenture modelling, some markets could generate substantial capital reinforcement cost savings simply through better identification of local constraints on the distribution network. A 10 per cent improved accuracy in distributed generation forecasts, resulted in projected savings of 15-28 per cent in New York, 14-18 per cent in California, 14-15 per cent in Australia, and 11-12 per cent in both the UK and The Netherlands.

Indeed, distributed generation integration was ranked as the second-highest priority area as a cost-saving opportunity, selected by 59 per cent of respondents as one of their top five choices.

The top priority, chosen by 61 per cent of respondents, was reducing supply chain unit costs through improved forecasting of materials and service requirements.

​Cape Town’s residents may be happy to know that the registration for solar photovolactic (PV) systems has been moved from February 28 to May 31, as the City has noted residents may need more time to complete the process.

“There is no charge for the registration of solar PV systems. A fee will only be applied for failure to register the system by 31 May 2019,” the City said in a statement. “The registration tells the City where a system is connected and confirms the quality of the installation so that staff and contractors are not electrocuted when working on the network.”

A national legislation draft will soon rule that the formal registration of a small-scale embedded generation system become mandatory.

“It has always been a legal requirement that systems that generate electricity and are connected to the City’s electricity network be authorised by the City prior to being connected,” the City said. “This includes solar PV systems that generate electricity. It has however taken some time for South Africa to develop national standards to connect PV installations safely.”

In the absence of national standards, the City developed interim standards for PV systems to be safely and legally connected to the grid.

“The main reason that registration is required is to ensure the safety of our staff and to supply electricity to all customers at certain quality standards. Information on where these systems exist can also be used for electricity demand control, quality of supply management and for planning future investment in electricity infrastructure,” Mayoral Committee Member for Energy and Climate Change Councillor Phindile Maxiti said. “We sincerely hope that our residents will make use of all of the assistance on offer with the registration process. It is very clear that we are moving towards a system of national registration and it is the City’s intention as far as possible to assist its residents with this transition within the confines of legislation.”

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Mall of Africa is set to unveil a world first in integrated renewable energy systems, with the largest rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) system of its kind in the southern hemisphere and tenth worldwide.
The 4 755 kW installation covers most of the available mall roof space, an area of about 45 000 m² and the energy generated will be used to power the mall’s daily operations.

Located in the heart of Waterfall City, in Johannesburg, Mall of Africa is owned in a joint venture by Attacq (80%) and Atterbury (20%), and is South Africa's largest shopping mall ever built in one phase, offering over 130 000 m2 of retail space.

“In the month that saw South Africa’s government launch an Integrated Resource Plan with a clear prioritisation of renewable energy as the path to our country’s energy security, we are thrilled to be announcing our own innovation in renewable energy generation.

“Attacq is well known for its focus on sustainable building, especially in its flagship Waterfall development,” said Attacq retail asset management head Michael Clampett.  

The resulting reduction in traditional electricity consumption will alleviate pressure on the national power grid, allowing for greater available capacity to support the substantial local economic growth currently experienced in the Waterfall area.

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SE listed REIT SA Corporate Real Estate Limited will invest more than R30 million to install state-of-the-art rooftop solar PV plants to help curb ever climbing electricity tariffs at its malls and reduce their carbon footprint.

Retail Asset Manager, Carmen Collison, said that the ongoing multimillion-rand investment in solar by SA Corporate Real Estate Limited, one of the oldest and most established property companies in the South African property market, put it on a par with some of the most advanced malls around the globe.

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It also showed that, although large regional malls with their large underutilized roof tops were probably best suited to large scale solar power generation, the installation of PV panels at smaller centres also delivered substantial returns.

She said that SA Corporate Real Estate Limited had invested R26.2-million in solar to date with 2 MWh installed. The future capex spend would be approximately R33.5-million which would see an additional 1MWh installed. 

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In a notice published in the Government Gazette on Friday November 10, independent generators of up to 1MW of electricity have been exempted from the legal obligation to be licensed. This means that owners of embedded renewable generation facilities will not be subject to the administrative and financial burden of obtaining a generating license from the National Energy Regulator (Nersa) and the development might speed up further investment in, for example, solar photovoltaic (PV) installations.

Such generators will however have to register with Nersa.
The department has also given notice that electricity resellers will in future need to register with Nersa, which should make it easier for the regulator to curb over-charging of end-users.

The exemption applies to generators of up to 1MW who are connected to the national grid and supply a single customer without wheeling (transporting) the energy through the grid, as well as wheeling it to a single or related customer.

Generators of up to 1MW of electricity for own-use or a related person or customer on the same premises who is not connected to the grid are also exempted from licensing, as are demonstration plants and back-up generators. They also need to register with Nersa, as do industries that generate electricity as a by-product of their main activity or from waste.

The exemption is subject to the maximum amount of embedded generation capacity in the integrated resource plan (IRP). The IRP sets out the future energy mix of the country and is currently being finalised. It is not clear whether there will be a cap on embedded generation.

As is currently the case, electricity resellers will, in terms of the notice, not be permitted to charge end-users more for electricity than the tariff the same customer would have had to pay if he/she bought electricity directly from the licensed distributor in that area.

Many sectional title complexes, shopping centres, industrial parks and office buildings make use of resellers to distribute electricity internally beyond the bulk supply point.

Sectional title owners and tenants pay the reseller at a rate that should be equal or less than the rate they would have paid if they bought directly from the local distributor, which is usually the municipality or Eskom.

In terms of the notice, resellers would be required to enter into an agreement with the local licensed electricity distributor to regulate their relationship and Nersa will have to approve the general conditions of service delivery.

AgriSA has welcomed the notice, saying it enables smaller scale renewable energy projects to generate power not only for own-use, but also for the benefit of industries such as the farming sector.

“The large-scale roll out of solar installations has helped to reduce the cost of solar technologies and improved cost-competitiveness in recent years. In addition to the clear environmental benefits, the use of independent solar energy can contribute to cost savings for the user as well contribute to developing a domestic solar industry value chain,” AgriSA said in a statement.

“For these reasons, the use of solar power holds specific potential in the farming industry. Farmers can install their own PV infrastructure to reduce their carbon footprint while also saving on electricity costs.”

According to AgriSA the licensing requirement has, until now, hindered farmers with PV installations from connecting to the grid.

After the publication for comment of the draft regulations in December last year many farmers have however, in anticipation of the exemption, begun investing in constructing solar photovoltaic (PV) on their properties, says AgriSA.

“According to energy consulting firm, Sonfin, the investment in solar projects by their farmer clients amounts to about R200 to R350 million to date. According to Nedbank, they have provided about R50 million in finance for renewable energy projects in agriculture over the last three years. Of this, 20% (R10 million) was for projects that were affected by the delay in finalising the licensing exemptions. Holding and other costs associated with not being able to lawfully connect to the electricity grid due to the delay in the entry into effect of the draft exemptions caused significant financial losses to the industry,” says AgriSA.

Energy expert Eric Bott, who is the technical director at Energy Measurement Consulting, has also welcomed the notice.

He says it will serve to allow the development of the embedded generation industry while protecting the sustainability of the national grid. The registration of the installations will enable Nersa to get a broad view of the size of the industry and developing trends and inform electricity demand forecasts for Eskom and municipalities.

He says the removal of the obligation to license smaller embedded generation installations will be a huge step forward for, for example, shopping malls looking at self-generation through rooftop solar PV installations.

Bott says the registration of electricity resellers is long overdue. He says over-charging is rampant in this industry and until now end-users have had little recourse.

Nersa will in future be able to withdraw the registration of resellers that prejudice end-users and are currently “a bigger problem than Eskom”, Bott says.

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According to Van Roosmalen, this product has an acceptable balance between appearance, yield and sustainability.
​“We have managed to find a “sweet spot” that is made up of 30% coloured print as well as having a guaranteed yield of 80%. We are able to achieve this through the use of Metal Wrap Through back-contact technology which gives an excellent background for the full-colour print and flexibility in dimensioning and production. This technology improves the yield by 5 to 10 percent compared to standard solar cells, by conducting the metallisation of the solar cells to the rear of the MWT cells through laser-drilled holes, so that we can connect the cells in series using conductive copper foil.“
Material sustainability plays a pivotal role in the development and testing phase. Van Roosmalen: “Up to now the panel has passed ECN's outdoor, indoor and UV lighting tests with flying colours. The results show that the panel more than meets the solar panel industry's standard test duration and so confirms our ambition to guarantee its sustainability and colour-fastness for 20 years.”
One of the great advantages of the façade module is its flexibility in use. According to Van Roosmalen the module's size of 120 x 90 centimetres may be smaller than a standard panel, but puts it in line with standard construction sizes – multiples of 30 cm – and the flexible MWT technology makes various applications and sizes possible. “The DSD façade panel can be used in various sizes. A relevant factor for the PV industry is that the colour prints can be used on different types of solar cells: from monocrystalline and multicrystalline silicon to thin film.”

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Nesa Investment Holdings (NIH) has opened its second capital raising round, providing investors with an opportunity to invest in SA's renewable energy sector.
The fund invests in a portfolio of commercial rooftop solar energy projects and related technologies, and earns revenue through operating, renting and maintaining these projects to its clients.
NIH says the initial round of capital raising in the first quarter of 2017 quickly yielded R10.5 million, 65% of which has been invested successfully in projects currently under way.

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This article aims to provide readers with information in an effort to increase sales of solar PV rooftop systems by providing information and statistics on various sectors within the solar PV rooftop market and then providing a breakdown on the types of information required in order to sell PV systems to the three main PV sectors in SA.
Information is arguably the one big factor that can drive sales towards or away from an organisation. It is not always the information that is shared that drives the sale but rather the information that is not being shared. In order to sell anything, sales staff need to have access to information and have the ability to assess which information should be disclosed and which should not be disclosed in order to close-the-deal. Disclosing too much information or the wrong information will discourage or even confuse clients.
This brings us to the information that you need to know, should you, or your organisation be interested in approaching shopping center owners as an avenue for potential sales. A growing number of shopping centers in South Africa are being fitted with rooftop solar PV systems to supplement the current electricity supply. PQRS has done a brief aggregated analysis that considers different categories of shopping center where the watts per meter squared (w/m2) is compared to Gross Lease-able area(GLA) in an attempt to determine the overall capacity of solar PV that can be fitted in this lucrative and growing market.
This analysis aims to find the average sized system per category of shopping center. That value is then extrapolated across the total number of shopping centers in order to find the total capacity for solar PV rooftop systems that can be fitted onto shopping centers. Couple this information with the growth estimation on malls and an analysis to understand the growth as well as potential of PV that can be fitted on shopping malls throughout South Africa becomes possible. The analysis did not take roof coverage into account as there are some shopping centers where the roof area is increased with the use of car ports. The approach of looking at the category of center compared to the w/m2 installed seemed to make more sense at the time of doing the analysis. SA is the 6th on the list of countries in the world with the most shopping centers per capita; with more than 2000 shopping centers larger than 2000m2 in GLA.
In table 1 a breakdown of 22 shopping centers show the name of the center in the second column and then towards the right the GLA (short for Gross Lease-able Area) which effectively indicates the size of the center in square meters. The 'size Wp' column indicates the size of PV system that has already been fitted onto the center. Mall@Reds as an example shows a 2,1MW PV system on a 163 000m2 floor area resulting in 13 watts per square meter installed at that center. Between the three Super Regional Retail stores, the average sized system fitted on these category of malls are 2,58MW. The last column gives and indication of the watts per square meter installed on each mall.
When looking at future growth of retail center floor area; GLA growth is not 100% consistent with the growth of the number of centers being built. Two figures were applied to determine growth. A value of 6,7% annual growth (according to the number of retail centers) were used to determine the value of "continuous growth" This value was determined by looking at the average growth of the available history of source data. A value of 3% was used to determine projected growth termed "conservative growth" estimation as indicated in graph 1. Conservative growth takes rand/dollar exchange rates, tougher trading environments due to credit ratings, and a declining spending potential into consideration as disposable cash resources from retail consumers come under even more pressure. Average m2 growth was determined and a value of 23w/m2 (source table 1) was applied across the total floor area in order to determine current and future potential PV rooftop capacity, for Malls and retail centers with a GLA greater than 2000m2.
Table 2 shows the projected capacity for malls based on source data. This data can be further extrapolated into each category of mall as well as the projected growth for individual categories. Super regional shopping malls for example may not be growing at the same rate as regional or neighborhood malls.
Each year is marked with a significant shift in sales and how sales are achieved as market drivers take dramatic shifts based on grid stability, cost of electricity, the rand dollar exchange rate, and the list goes on. During 2015 SA had an unstable grid, and smaller systems that contained some form of storage were popular with the more affordable Axpert type inverter selling by the 1000’s. Battery suppliers couldn’t keep up and the PV industry was thriving under the demand. Most suppliers noted a 300 to 600% growth in sales. (By the way. . . In this article we are also not discussing the quality of installations at the time of blackouts or the installation standards at the time.) In short, industry couldn’t keep up.
2016 Saw grid and market stabilization as the need for back-up power, dried up overnight and new suppliers were left with container loads of stock. I believe some of the more aspirant entrepreneurs who decided to import container loads of batteries are still sitting with stock almost 1 and a half years later.
This brings us to 2017 as we see yet another year where the market forces and demand have shifted gears. Whether the gears were shifted up or down would have been determined on your strategy, approach, network, relationships, existing agreements carried over from 2016 as well as the type of sector companies were operating within. Lest we not forget insurance for the fluctuating Rand/dollar exchange rate for stock caught between ports.
We see some new EPC’s having a hard time getting the door leading into the market opened; and some others finding a way into the market through a window instead of the traditional door. Some “new” EPC’s have been working in the background on a single project for years and have made a sudden appearance with projects abound and the latest craze being solar PV systems being offered free of charge to consumers through PPA;s or agreements with municipalities to buy power being generated.
There are three main PV sectors that are reflected or captured in the PQRS database.

1. C and I is short for Commercial and industrial. These types of installations would be installed on office parks, factories, shopping centers, schools, mines, lodges, guest houses, municipal buildings, libraries, retail outlets, in fact any type of business environment where goods are produced or sold, places of work, etc.
2. Agricultural is fairly obvious and would be systems installed on farms for the purpose of providing power for the cultivation, irrigation, processing or production of perishable goods being either crops or livestock.
3. Residential is also fairly obvious and would include places where people stay. Flats, townhouses & homes in any shape or form.

Each one of these sectors, have a unique approach, each with its own fields of expertise, i.e. how do you sell a system to an end user in a residential environment; or to a farmer. Each sector has its own approach and in each instance the approach may be unique according to region.
Below we have included a list of bullet points containing information you need to know before approaching clients to sell PV systems in the various sectors.
Commercial and industrial PV installations

1. Know what the municipality in your region is up to with regards to embedded generation
2. Find a partner that can assist with financing solutions
3. Create a Purchase Power Agreement solution
4. Brush up your knowledge on 12B, 12L, accelerated depreciation, and the various tax benefits offered for PV and renewable energy installations
5. Get involved with energy metering
6. Focus on energy efficiency
7. Start by approaching clients with energy efficiency solutions
8. Understand large scale solar thermal plants
9. Build a relationship with some of the other EPC’s and installers. Everybody uses a sub-contractor at some stage. Make sure that sub-contractor is your organization even if it is a competitor you are providing services for, we all need a little help at some stage.
10. Make your organization indispensible by diversifying your service portfolio and by offering multiple services.

Agricultural installations

1. Know what Eskom is doing as most Agri connections lie within Eskom regions
2. Know how to shift loads and shift demands. Be innovative and think out of the box. Dairies have a peak demand that lie outside of peak sun-hours, find a way to create a solution, it exists
3. Learn another language or appoint someone that looks, walks and talks like the locals. Farmers like working with people they can associate with, look like them and people they can understand.
4. Invest time in energy management and not just installing PV
5. Consider borehole pumping for livestock and crops using solar PV along with variable speed drives or solar drives
6. Understand seasonal loads and craft solutions around seasons
7. Get to know local installers, they are the door into the region as they have an existing customer base.
8. Understand that theft is a huge issue on some farms, find a way to combat theft.
9. Know the maximum sized system that can be installed on a farm based on the NRS standard.
10. Get to know your competitors and what they have done to make it work.

Residential installations

1. Know contractors in your region that can do PV installations
2. Get to know a couple of engineers that can assist with design and signing off systems
3. Build relationships with companies in your region.
4. Build a flexible business model where your organization can appoint sub contractors on short notice to compensate for smaller and bigger projects.
5. Think out of the box.
6. Get to know what the banks are doing
7. Get to know what the insurance companies are doing
8. Brush up your knowledge on the sector, trends and installation standards
9. Experiment with PV, start small and work your way up.
10. Specialize in something. Grid tied PV installation is not a field of specialization. Earthing, Bonding, SPD’s, LPD’s, Mounting structures, generation system integration, off grid integration, PLC control, system programming, storage and system communication are fields of specialization. Specialize in something.

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Attend a course to ensure that your direction and strategy is in line with where the market is moving; it could be a paid course, free course or webinar. Become part of something bigger and don’t isolate your company or organization.
PQRS offers both in-house training focused on where the market is heading as well as Solar PV installer and Designer training. Our quality assurance platform is geared towards developing quality and ensuring installations are designed and completed to a high standard.
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