The return of load-shedding, together with what is a truly dire prognosis for system stability, should surely have been the wake-up call government required to finally begin implementing its very own Integrated Resource Plan 2019 (IRP 2019).
Instead, the only indication that the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) is even slightly alive to the crisis is the issuance of a Request for Information (RFI) for emergency supply solutions.

The RFI in itself is not a problem, as the IRP 2019 does include an open-ended allocation for the period 2019 to 2022 that will be determined by “the extent of the short-term capacity and energy gap”.

The immediate gap is estimated in the document to be between 2 000 MW and 3 000 MW, but could increase to 5 000 MW should Eskom decide, later this month, to pursue a new maintenance philosophy that increases the number of units out for planned outage so as to address the steep rise in unplanned breakdowns.

​The problem with the RFI is that it is being pursued in isolation from the rest of the IRP 2019 and is potentially distracting from and delaying the implementation of sensible, low-cost and least-regret solutions.

Despite including some expensive policy adjustments, such as imported hydro, Eskom batteries and forced-in private coal, the IRP 2019 still offers a rational roadmap forward. Therefore, if the DMRE were truly serious about tackling the crisis, it would be moving to implement it.

Practically, that would mean not only the Risk Mitigation Power Procurement Programme, which should flow from the RFI responses, but also the immediate release of bid documents for the next round of renewable- energy procurement, as well as the gas-to-power programme.

Likewise, the department could announce an immediate moratorium, at least until 2022, on the regulatory constraints still blocking some 2 000 MW of capacity that private enterprises and households are willing to build and finance.

What is no longer acceptable is for the department to look primarily towards Eskom and the Department of Public Enterprises for a way out of this predicament. If it continues to do so, the crisis will endure for far longer than would otherwise be the case, with devastating consequences for the economy.

Source.......

HAVE YOUR SAY
INVITATION FOR PUBLIC SUBMISSIONS
DRAFT INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN (IRP) 2018
The Portfolio Committee on Energy invites interested individuals and
stakeholders to submit written comments on the Draft Integrated
Resource Plan (IRP) 2018.
The National Development Plan (NDP) identifies the need for South
Africa to invest in a strong network of economic infrastructure designed
to support the country’s medium and long-term economic and social
objectives. Energy infrastructure is a critical component that underpins
economic activity and growth across the country; it needs to be robust
and extensive enough to meet industrial, commercial and household
needs.
The first IRP for South Africa was promulgated in March 2011. It was
indicated at the time that the IRP should be a “living plan” which will be
frequently revised by the Department of Energy (DoE).
Enquiries, as well as written submissions, can be sent to the Portfolio
Committee on Energy (attention: Mr Arico Kotze), 3rd floor, WS 3/107, 90
Plein Street, Cape Town 8001, or e-mailed to akotze@parliament.gov.za
In addition to the written comments, please indicate your interest in
making a verbal presentation to the Committee.
The closing date for submissions is 05 October 2018.
Copies of the Draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) can be obtained from
Mr Arico Kotze at 021 403 3662, 083 709 8470 or www.parliament.gov.za
Issued by Hon F Z Majola, MP, Chairperson of the Portfolio Committee
on Energy.

The South African Ministry of Energy is to release an updated electricity plan this month. Analysts will be hoping it will launch the country’s power sector into a modern sustainable, clean power future, and that outdated, and financially unfeasible facets of previous plans will be laid to rest.

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) projects the country’s long-term electricity needs and defines the infrastructure developments needed to meet power production. Government uses it to work out the number and type of power stations to construct, as well as the time frames for their commissioning and the occasional retirement of old plants.

The intention was to update the plan every two years. But the last plan, adopted in 2011, is already seven years old. It envisaged a substantial increase in electricity demand from 39GW in 2010 to 68GW in 2030. The extra capacity was to come from an additional 9.6GW of nuclear power, 17.6GW from solar and wind renewable technologies (which were quite new at the time) and 6.3GW from new coal plants.

Read more........

The Department of Energy (DoE) has formally extended the period for public comment on the draft Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) and the draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) base case until March 31.
The closing date for written comment was initially set as February 15, after the two plans were formally Gazetted on November 25.
The DoE said the decision to extend the comment period followed requests from a number of stakeholders.
To date, the department has hosted hearings on the IEP and the IRP in Gauteng, the Western Cape, the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
A number of participants expressed dismay at the short notice provided for preparing oral submissions and the restricted timeframe for the submission of written comments.

Read more....

Public consultation on the draft Integrated Resource Plan
Following the approval by Cabinet on 2 November 2016, the Minister of Energy released draft documentation relating to a new Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) and Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) on 22 November 2016.  The IEP addresses the future energy landscape in general, whereas the IRP focuses specifically on electricity.  Both are long-term planning documents.  More attention so far has been devoted to the IRP, particularly because of the emphasis placed by Government (and Eskom) on the importance of a substantial expansion of nuclear power within the overall electricity provision forecasts to 2050.
The draft updated IRP’s base case envisages a new build programme of power generating capacity over the period 2021 to 2050, with the following components:

Currently, total installed capacity is 51 000 MW.  Much of this will be obsolete by 2050, but with the new capacity to be added, the draft updated IRP envisages a base case with a total installed capacity in 2050 of 136 000 MW.
The Minister announced that the next step was for public consultation to be held during December 2016 and January 2017, culminating in Government adjustments in March 2017 and the promulgation of a final IRP, once it is approved by Cabinet.

Read more.......

The much awaited updated South African Integrated Resource Plan for electricity has been released for comment.

The document makes far-reaching proposals about the target energy generation mix leading all the way to 2050. In particular, the plan pronounces on the future scale and role of nuclear energy and renewable energy technologies. The appropriateness of these has been debated a great deal in the country in the past few years.

If adopted in its current form, it will lead to a 15 year delay in the construction of new nuclear power plants. But it will also result in a greater reliance on gas, solar and especially wind power than anticipated five years ago in the previous plan 2010-2030.

The proposed plan has already been the subject of intensive scrutiny and debate, with those for and against lining up to make their points. The state utility Eskom is unhappy about the suggested delay in building a much bigger nuclear capability and has even threatened to ignore key recommendations. For their part, advocates of renewable energy argue that the plan underestimates how much less expensive these technologies will be in the next 20 to 30 years.

The previous road-map An earlier version of the integrated resources plan released in 2011 envisaged that between 2010 and 2030 South Africa’s electricity demand would grow from 255 TWh (tera-watt-hours – a unit of energy) to 436 TWh. This was to be achieved through the completion of two very large coal power plants, Medupi and Kusile, which would supply the bulk of the shortfall. Other contributors would be nuclear, for which new plants would need to be built, and the establishment of a new renewable energy generation network of wind power and solar power.

But a great deal has changed since then.

Firstly, the growth in energy demand has proved to be lower than projected. Secondly, the cost of renewable technologies has dropped faster than expected. In particular, the price of solar photovoltaic electricity allocated under the country’s renewable energy procurement programme fell by 75% between 2012 and 2015.

These developments were captured in an updated version of the 2011 plan that was prepared in 2013. It recommended that, in view of these changing conditions, there was no longer a need to kick-start a nuclear build programme immediately. It also recommended that a decision on whether or not to embark on an expensive expansion of the nuclear reactor fleet could be delayed for several years.

But this updated version of the plan was never promulgated. This left the door open for a fiercely pro-nuclear lobby which is in favour of a highly lucrative nuclear expansion programme. This issue has developed into a political hot potato. The central argument is that the push for nuclear goes against economic common sense and that it’s being pursued for the benefit of politically connected individuals.

The nuclear build issue has come to feature prominently as one of the important drivers of what is referred to as “state capture” of some of the country’s large institutions.

The latest version The draft update of the resources plan advocates the following most likely scenario, referred to as the “base case”.

Electricity demand between 310 and 355 TWh in 2030 (about 100 TWh lower than envisaged in the 2010-2030 plan) with demand rising to between 390 and 530 TWh in 2050. This is based on projection models developed at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research.

The construction of 37.4 GW (1 000 GigaWatts equal 1 TeraWatt) of wind capacity and 17.6 GW of solar photovoltaic capacity between 2020 and 2050.

The gradual decommissioning of most existing coal power stations by 2050 in line with international carbon emission agreements.

A substantial increase (35.3 GW) in electricity generation from gas. Due to the high cost of gas it is generally used only as a back up. It would in any case contribute only about 7% of total energy generation.

The construction of just over 20 GW of nuclear power. But this would only gradually come on line between 2037 and 2050. Given that construction of the plants would take ten years the decision to go ahead with the nuclear build could still be delayed for another decade.

Initial reactions Unsurprisingly, the nuclear industry and its supporters have reacted very negatively to the new draft. Strong nuclear advocates in the state electricity utility Eskom have gone so far as to defiantly declare that they will invite nuclear construction proposals before the end of the year.

But Eskom’s defiance is unlikely to lead to anything substantial. This is because the state utility is facing both a credibility crisis and its finances are in poor shape.

On the other hand advocates of faster growth in renewables have criticised two fundamental assumptions underpinning the “base case” model.

They argue that the model assumes renewable tariffs slightly higher than achieved in the last allocations made under the renewable energy procurement programme. Only by 2030 do these drop a further 20% for photovoltaics and 9% for wind. But given recent trends and projections there’s a strong likelihood that future renewable energy costs will be lower than that.

The “base case” also assumes a limit to how many solar and wind plants can be constructed annually. But based on past interest and delivery by private renewable power producers far greater annual developments are possible.

Several researchers have shown that by applying lower renewable tariffs and removing annual construction limits renewables can make up a much greater proportion of the energy mix, and that new nuclear might not even be needed in 2050.

Future energy demand The new energy plan is now subject to public input. It is due to be adopted by government in four months time after improvements and further scenario modelling has been added.

Even after adoption, updates will need to be done regularly, ideally every two years since even current projections could be overestimating future energy demand considerably.

This is particularly true given that energy consumption is declining in most developed countries because of advances in technology and energy saving initiatives.

If the energy sector is managed correctly, the current South African energy crisis may not be as far reaching as is often assumed.

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2010-30 was promulgated in March 2011. It was indicated at the time that the IRP should be a “living plan” which would be revised by the Department of Energy (DoE) every two years i.e. an Update is required in 2013. Since the promulgation of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2010-30 there have been a number of developments in the energy sector in South and Southern Africa. In addition the electricity demand outlook has changed markedly from that expected in 2010.

Consequently the Department of Energy have completed an IRP 2010 Update which is available for you to download. You are requested to consider this update and email your comments and or questions to Tshepo.Madingoane@energy.gov.za. The closing date for your submissions will be 7 February 2014.

Comments received will be considered in preparing a final draft IRP 2010 Update which will be submitted to Cabinet for final approval by March 2014. The approved document will then be promulgated and be published in the Government Gazette.

Download the :   Integrated Resource Plan 2010 Update