By Arnold Rix and MJ (Thinus) Booysen
South Africans are facing another round of power cuts despite promises from South Africa's power utility, Eskom, that it would keep the lights on. Unexpected breakdowns and scheduled maintenance at various generation plants have been blamed for reduced generation capacity. These have compromised the stability of the national power grid. Since this affects everyone in the country, The Conversation Africa invited Thinus Booysen and Arnold Rix to explain what the power grid is and what keeps it stable - or not.
What is the power grid?
The grid is made up of three building blocks: generation, transmission and distribution.
Generation consists of power stations (or plants) that generate electricity. Examples of these are the newly built Kusile and Medupi power stations. South Africa has a generation capacity of approximately 58 GW - enough to power 26 million kettles concurrently - mostly made up of Eskom's coal-burning power plants. Eskom's share of this is a generation capacity of 44 GW, of which 38 GW is from coal-powered stations.

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​Transmission comprises the 28,000 km of high voltage lines that transport electricity at high voltage levels (such as 400 kV or 765 kV) to cities and towns.

There, it branches out to 325,000 km of lower-voltage lines that distribute electricity to homes and businesses. In comparison, New Zealand has 150,000 km for a tenth of South Africa's population and the UK has over 800,000 km.

The transmission lines and distribution lines therefore connect the generation plants and users in a network that collectively form the grid, which operates at a synchronised alternating current frequency of 50Hz.

All generating plants, including coal-burning plants, solar farms, wind farms and hydro-electric plants, are synchronised and interconnected in this way. All turbines running in power plants must run in unison, and all renewable sources must fall in line.

The electricity in a house's plugs is also synchronised to the grid. This includes plugs (and light sockets) all over the country and beyond South Africa's borders in countries that it sells electricity to.

Like a heartbeat, this 50 Hz oscillation keeps the grid alive. It allows electrical power to flow from the numerous generation plants and spread throughout the country to the places where it is needed.

What threatens stability on the grid?

When generation can't keep up with demand.

Unfortunately, due to the backlog of maintenance of older Eskom plants and mismanagement during the development of newer plants, the generation capacity of Eskom often dwindles. With an average plant age of 40 years, breakdowns and maintenance have amounted to as much as a 20 GW loss in generation capacity.

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Eskom is facing severe challenges, including senior managers not doing their jobs and employees ignoring alarms at power stations.

These problems were revealed by Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter and COO Jan Oberholzer in separate media briefings.

For over a year, Eskom promised South Africans that load-shedding would be significantly reduced from September 2021 because of their extensive maintenance plans.

Eskom asked the public to grin and bear load-shedding until this time as it was needed to create a reliable generation system.

The time of reckoning has now arrived, and Eskom failed miserably.

South Africa experienced the worst load-shedding it had ever seen over an October period. It was clear that Eskom promise of a more reliable generation system was misguided.

People were looking for answers, and De Ruyter and Oberholzer played open cards in recent media briefings.

Eskom’s Chief Operating Officer Jan Oberholzer confirmed that “pure negligence” by Eskom staff contributed to the recent load-shedding.

Oberholzer said employees did not perform their duties, which included ignoring alarms at power stations.
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​De Ruyter added that an operator at the Kusile power station ignored a flashing light on a control panel that indicated a low oil level. It led to a power generation unit tripping.

De Ruyter also admitted that their plants had been poorly maintained and remained unreliable.

“At this stage, our poorly maintained power plants are calling the shots. That is why we had load-shedding,” De Ruyter told The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield.

“We could have avoided it, but regrettably, the lack of reliability of our system caught up with us, and we had to implement load-shedding.”

De Ruyter admitted that incompetence and neglect by Eskom staff is one of the major reasons for the recent bout of load-shedding.

“When you look at the bad habits that many of Eskom employees acquired during the era of state capture – especially when some of my less than illustrious predecessors were in charge and pulled levers to enrich themselves — that embedded very poor operational practices,” he said.

“To unlearn those practices are going to require some doing. We have already made a number of management changes.”

The Eskom CEO added that they have a management gap at some of their power stations where the managers should improve their performance.

The problems do not stop there. There is a command structure below stations managers where Eskom has suffered a depletion of skills.

“One person cannot operate a power station, which means you have to rely on the skills you have available. That malaise which crept in over the years will take time to restore,” he said.

De Ruyter said the fact that many Eskom managers — who are exceptionally well paid — do not take pride in their jobs and ensure their power stations run well is causing him to lose sleep.

“This is an issue which leads to Eskom letting down 60 million South Africans. It is something the lackadaisical managers don’t understand.”

He dismissed speculation that the recent load-shedding was an orchestrated event.

“It was caused by a number of failures of key power plants, and as a consequence, we had to go into stage 4 load-shedding,” De Ruyter said.

De Ruyter also dismissed rumours that load-shedding was stopped over the election weekend because the government instructed Eskom to do it.

“This was entirely an Eskom decision. We have taken a look at the units that came back from unplanned outages, and we felt comfortable suspending load-shedding,” he said.

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​Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy Gwede Mantashe has published new embedded generation regulations which could help businesses and private individuals reduce their reliance on Eskom.

In the regulations, the government has proposed lifting the threshold for embedded generation capacity from 1MW to 10MW.

This comes after President Cyril Ramaphosa announced in his state of the nation address that the government was considering lifting the threshold to reduce strain on the struggling national power grid.

“Recent analysis suggests that easing the licensing requirements for new embedded generation projects could unlock up to 5,000MW of additional capacity and help to ease the impact of load-shedding,” he said at the time.

“We will therefore amend Schedule 2 of the Electricity Regulation Act within the next three months to increase the licensing threshold for embedded generation,” Ramaphosa promised.

The licencing requirements were a stumbling block for many businesses which aimed to help alleviate the electricity crisis in South Africa by supplying their own power from solar, wind, other self-generation platforms.

New regulations
Currently, the Electricity Regulation Act requires entities who want to build power plants greater than 1MW to obtain a licence from the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa).

The new regulations state these entities will no longer have to obtain a licence for generation capacity up to 10MW.

They will still need to register with Nersa, but it’s not clear exactly how this process will differ from the current regime.

While the move will be welcomed by businesses, power experts and analysts have called for a bigger increase.

Professor Anton Eberhard, who directs the Power Futures Lab at UCT’s Graduate School of Business, told Reuters the new threshold was not high enough.

He said the Economic Advisory Board had recommended that the threshold be raised to 50MW, and pointed out the new regulations did not apply to projects aimed at adding capacity to the transmission grid.

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In a big first step for Africa, the utility looks to procure 360 megawatts/1,440 megawatt-hours of storage capacity by 2021.
South Africa’s utility Eskom is preparing to launch a tender for 1.4 gigawatt-hours of battery storage that will need to be installed by December 2021.

The large-scale energy storage tender, the first of its kind in the country and in Africa as a whole, will be split into two phases, with an initial 200 megawatts/800 megawatt-hours of capacity to be built by December 2020, an Eskom official said. 

This first phase of implementation will be divided into four packages, and will be followed by 160 megawatts/640 megawatt-hours to be installed a year later, Prince Moyo, general manager for power delivery engineering at Eskom, said during a Wednesday webinar.

The second phase will include 60 megawatts of solar to be integrated with the battery storage, along with an asset performance management system.

The tender has already been approved by South Africa’s Ministry of Finance, Moyo said. The only ministry that has not yet signed off is the Department of Public Enterprises, Moyo added. That consent “has been escalated to the highest level,” he said, without committing to a launch date for the solicitation. “It’s imminent,” he said.

Moyo called the battery tender “a flagship project” for Eskom, which supplies around 90 percent of South Africa’s electricity via more than 45 gigawatts of generation. “We are moving toward cleaner power,” he said.

The planned battery solicitation follows a 2010 loan agreement with the World Bank and other lenders for the development of a 100-megawatt concentrated solar power plant, Kiwano, with energy storage.

When this project failed to materialize, Eskom began looking into other ways to fulfill the loan agreement, said Moyo. The utility put forward a proposal to use distributed battery storage in 2017.

Frederic Verdol, World Bank Group senior power engineer, said the battery tender was also a first for the bank. “Eskom wanted to be proactive,” he said. “This was a key thing for us because it’s in line with the original objectives of the project.”

The scope of the technology-agnostic procurement will include battery operations and maintenance and physical security such as access control and alarm systems.

For the first phase of procurement, Eskom has developed its own battery energy storage system specification and taken care of site selection, environmental approvals, land acquisition and National Energy Regulator licensing, Moyo said.

“We have also done some concept design,” he stated.

The winning bidder will be expected to verify Eskom’s technical studies and provide detailed designs before implementing the battery plant, said Moyo. Eskom has identified eight potential sites for the first phase of procurement, subject to due diligence.

Site selection for the second phase of procurement is underway, with fewer than 10 sites now under consideration, Moyo revealed.

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A leaked Eskom vision and strategy document, apparently prepared by the Boston Consulting Group for Eskom, has revealed the next steps of a long-awaited restructuring and turnaround plan for the embattled utility.

The document was presented on 22 August 2019 to the Eskom Executive Forum, a group of about 600 senior Eskom managers and executives, by acting Eskom CEO Jabu Mabuza.

In the presentation, Mabuza admits that Eskom is in a utility death spiral with an outdated and unsustainable business model, operational and structural inefficiencies, and a lack of transparency, in a rapidly changing energy landscape.

The presentation further states that “Eskom ran out of cash and came close to complete collapse on multiple occasions in 2019”, and warns that if nothing is done “Eskom will collapse and bring down South Africa”.

The restructuring process revealed so far
The first step of the restructuring of Eskom was announced by the President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, in his state-of-the-nation address on 7 February 2019. He indicated that the generation, transmission and distribution activities of Eskom will be split into three separate subsidiary companies owned by Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd.

The next step revealed by Mabuza in the presentation of 22 August will be to carve the transmission company out of Eskom Holdings into a separate, independent, state-owned company under the Department of Public Enterprises (DPE), to form an independent transmission system and market operator, or ITSMO.

After these first two steps, which the document indicates would have a timeframe of five years, Eskom would retain two of its major activities, namely generation and distribution, with each activity housed in a separate subsidiary company.

Thus, from the vision and strategy outlined in the document, it would appear that Eskom sees itself in the future as an electricity generation and distribution company, and not a transmission company.
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Further restructuring that may still follow
However, this would surely not be the end of the restructuring process, as the electricity generation and distribution activities of Eskom and municipalities are the two most troublesome and toxic hotspots that are in most need of restructuring.

Generation and distribution are also facing the biggest threats from disruptive technologies, in the form of utility-scale renewable energy, distributed embedded small-scale generation, and pervasive, consumer-empowering information and communication technologies (ICT).

In contrast, the current Eskom transmission group does not carry a lot of debt, arrear payments receivable, or people. Eskom’s transmission activities and assets are generally considered to be relatively well-managed, well-maintained and reliable, and this is the only part of Eskom that is seen to be functioning reasonably well.

So, to leave Eskom with the troublesome activities, toxic debt and municipal arrear payments of its un-restructured generation and distribution activities, with the crown jewels of transmission carved out and no longer forming part of its business, would be a fundamentally flawed and misguided vision and strategy.

It would perhaps be more rational and preferable for Eskom to morph from being primarily a generation company (as it is now), to becoming the state-owned ITSMO itself, and divesting from its problematic generation and distribution activities.

Thus, the as-yet unannounced end-state for the power generation and electricity distribution industries could perhaps comprise Steps 1 and 2 as already announced, but with Steps 3 and 4 still to follow, as detailed below.

Step 3 would be the creation of a competitive generation sector. This could be in the form of a handful of unbundled former Eskom generators, a limited number of public-private partnership (PPP) generators, a few hundred renewable energy and other independent power producers (IPPs), and several thousand distributed, small-scale, embedded generators.

This diverse group of generators would deliver generation capacity and energy to the ITSMO (in the form of a “new” rejuvenated Eskom), with the generators competing for access to the grid on level playing fields and on economic grounds via an electricity market managed by the ITSMO.

There could also be bilateral contracts between generators and customers, wheeling power through the grid, and paying wheeling fees to the ITSMO.

The final Step 4 of the restructuring process would surely have to be the rationalisation of the dysfunctional electricity distribution sector into a handful of financially viable and better resourced, independent, state-owned, regional electricity distributors (REDs), formed from the remnants of the current 185 municipal and six Eskom electricity distributors.

A competitive retail electricity sector selling electricity to consumers should also form part of the restructured electricity distribution industry, offering all manner of bundled retail pricing packages, as we see in other jurisdictions and sectors, such as for smartphone voice and data airtime.

Getting stakeholders on board.

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F​inancially-constrained power utility Eskom has signed a $180 million loan agreement with the New Development Bank (NDB) for a renewable energy integration and transmission augmentation project.

Under the agreement, the NDB will provide a loan with sovereign guarantee to Eskom. The NDB was established by Brazil, Russia, India, China and SA to mobilise resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging economies and developing countries.

The loan facility comes at a time Eskom is struggling to keep the lights on. President Cyril Ramaphosa recently said the severe financial and operational challenges being experienced by Eskom are as a result of a number of factors, from state capture to poor maintenance of its power plants.

The loan agreement was signed by Xian Zhu, NDB vice-president and chief operations officer, and Calib Cassim, chief financial officer of Eskom.

The NDP's Project Finance Facility (PFF) will be used to support the development of grid connection infrastructure, which is vital for the development of renewable energy projects, says Eskom.

It adds the PFF will support renewable energy development and reduce the country's reliance on fossil fuels.

​The project will integrate a total of 670MW of renewable energy into Eskom's grid. Modern grid connection infrastructure will be used for renewable energy projects and augmentation of the Eskom transmission network to the identified areas.

The project will also help increase electricity supply to the targeted areas for sustainable development.

According to the power utility, the project will enhance the country's capacity for renewable energy while achieving sustainable growth. It also aligns with the bank's focus to support projects that aim at developing renewable energy sources.

"We are happy to support this important project that will contribute to the development of grid connection infrastructure in South Africa and support the shift to a more sustainable energy path in the country," says Zhu.

"The project is coherent with the bank's focus on projects that incorporate sustainability from their inception. Moreover, we believe that supporting South Africa's energy sector is fully in line with the bank's mandate and our role as a reliable development partner."

Eskom's Cassim says: "The successful conclusion of this inaugural transaction with NDB will significantly contribute towards driving Eskom's goals to reduce South Africa's CO2 emissions.

"Eskom welcomes the support from NDB and we look forward to fostering a valuable partnership with this organisation whose mission is to enhance infrastructure for sustainable development in its member countries."

Commenting on the deal, Brenda Martin, chairperson of renewable energy industry body, the South African Wind Energy Association, says Eskom's role and duties as sole purchaser of power has been reinforced by government and the courts since early 2018.

This after the power utility had for some time been blamed for delaying the signing of renewable energy projects. The 27 outstanding power purchase agreements were eventually signed last year.

"With construction for Round 4 projects now under way and with the urgent need for new additions of power, the industry anticipates Eskom will recognise the need to fulfil its mandate to government and South Africa and not inhibit further investment in renewable energy," says Martin.

She adds that while the private sector covers significant costs of connecting to the grid up to the point of connection, Eskom as owner of the grid has to cover its own costs routinely associated with additions of new power such as deep connection costs.

"These routine operating costs for the grid owner are recoverable in the tariff. In a power system where the utility is a vertically integrated monopoly, this is quite routine. This is another reason why restructure of the SA power system is advisable."

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Two energy experts have slated Eskom’s leadership, arguing that the Eskom board should be sacked and a new CEO with an engineering background and energy experience should be appointed.

Speaking to SABC News, energy expert Ted Blom said he has never seen a “bunch of amateurs” running a company as is the case with Eskom.

Blom said the current Eskom board has been in place for over a year, but the situation at the power utility is now worse than under the previous corrupt board.

“This board is ineffective, they do not have the necessary experience and the chairman is conflicted,” said Blom.

Blom said the ANC government employed people who do not know what is going on because it refuses to look outside of the party for people with the required skills to run Eskom.

He said the solution is to appoint an interim board consisting of people who used to run Eskom effectively until the problems are resolved.

Get a new CEO
Transform RSA President Adil Nchabeleng concurred with Blom, saying Eskom’s leadership had ample warning and time to resolve the problems at the power utility.

“Management is refusing to raise its head. The board has not spoken. The minister is nowhere to be found. No one knows what is going on,” said Nchabeleng.

He added that Eskom’s board is “chaired by a person who knows nothing about energy, who has admitted that he is not an energy expert”.

“The board should have by now been recused and a new board should have been appointed,” said Nchabeleng.

He said that an experienced CEO with a strong engineering background and understanding of the energy sector should have been appointed.

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The electricity crises in South Africa is real, watch the video....

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Former Eskom chief executive Brian Molefe says he is in the dark about current problems faced by the power utility, which have seen the return of crippling power cuts as the company battles operational challenges.

Speaking to eNCA on Sunday morning, Molefe said he did not want to apportion blame about what could have occurred at the firm he led between April 2015 and November 2016.

In 2016, former president Jacob Zuma declared that there would be no more power cuts, following a visit to Eskom's headquarters.

'Then the lights went off'

During the interview, Molefe was asked what had gone wrong between that period and now, and he responded: "I don't know, because since we have said that three years have passed, and the lights didn't go off and then they went off."

"I don't know what is happening at Eskom because I am not at Eskom.... I am in the dark," he said.

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"I cannot say I appreciate what the problems are, but it means something must have gone wrong," he added.

Last week, Eskom announced that it would institute load shedding for the first time since December, blaming the problem on the failure of a number of generating units.

In December, Eskom blamed supply challenges on low coal stockpiles.

Related to the coal supply challenge was the controversial 2016 contract with formerly Gupta-owned Tegeta Exploration and Resources, which ran into operational challenges.

Supply constraints experienced by Tegeta were, back then, partly blamed for the current low coal stock piles at Eskom power stations, contributing, in turn, to load shedding.

Molefe, who resigned from Eskom after being named in the State of Capture report by former public protector Thuli Madonsela, stated that the contract was above board. 

He added that he had not been asked to appear before the commission of inquiry into state capture headed by Justice Raymond Zondo.

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