There is considerable support in South Africa for the notion that a transition in the electricity system from coal to renewable energy will trigger a jobs bloodbath at both Eskom and the Mpumalanga coal mines. A detailed analysis of the job numbers, however, suggests quite the opposite. In fact, it points to there being at least 30% more jobs in a fleet comprising solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind farms when compared with an energy-equivalent coal fleet.
The Department of Energy’s (DoE’s) Integrated Energy Plan includes a study on the job-intensity of different power-generating technologies. Applying these assumptions to two hypothetical power systems with the same yearly energy output will be indicative. To achieve a 100 terrawatt-hour per annum (TWh/a) production rate with coal-fired power stations, a 14 GW fleet would have to be built, operated and maintained in perpetuity. With a lifetime assumption of 30 years, roughly 0.5 GW of new coal-fired plant would need to be built yearly, in perpetuity, to sustain the 100 TWh/a output. Applying the DoE job-intensity data suggests that such a fleet would create 20 486 permanent direct jobs in construction (at the 0.5 GW/a build rate) and operations of the associated coal mines and the power stations.
The Department of Energy’s (DoE’s) Integrated Energy Plan includes a study on the job-intensity of different power-generating technologies. Applying these assumptions to two hypothetical power systems with the same yearly energy output will be indicative. To achieve a 100 terrawatt-hour per annum (TWh/a) production rate with coal-fired power stations, a 14 GW fleet would have to be built, operated and maintained in perpetuity. With a lifetime assumption of 30 years, roughly 0.5 GW of new coal-fired plant would need to be built yearly, in perpetuity, to sustain the 100 TWh/a output. Applying the DoE job-intensity data suggests that such a fleet would create 20 486 permanent direct jobs in construction (at the 0.5 GW/a build rate) and operations of the associated coal mines and the power stations.
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Achieving the same 100 TWh yearly outcome using wind and solar PV plants would require a 45 GW fleet, comprising 25 GW of solar PV capacity to produce 50 TWh/a and a 20 GW wind fleet to produce the 50 TWh/a balance. Solar PV plants have a lifetime of 25 years, wind farms 20 years. Hence, 1 GW each would need to be built yearly, in perpetuity, to keep the output constant at 100 TWh/a. Building and operating such a fleet in perpetuity will require 26 475 permanent direct jobs – 15 125 in construction and 11 350 in operations. Hence, significantly more jobs are needed to build and operate a renewables fleet in perpetuity than is the case for a system based on coal, and that is without adding the jobs required in the flexible power stations, such as gas, biogas or batteries, needed to balance the renewables-based system.
How do these theoretical numbers compare with reality?
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How do these theoretical numbers compare with reality?
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